ZD Net
For my critical analysis I have chosen ZD net’s Top 10 ED tech predictions for 2011. Obviously this is an older article so it is interesting to look at what was predicted as being top ED tech for 2011. I also searched and found several articles relating to that one “The top 5 ed tech developments of 2011 that weren’t” and “Top 5 Ed Tech predictions for 2012”. All of Christopher’s picks for 2011 didn’t materialize the way that he thought and I would say that his 2012 predictions are not accurate as well. This clearly demonstrates the point that it is very hard to predict what the next growing trend in Ed tech will be. All of these technologies are dependent on certain events happening. Like the 1:1 was dependent on inexpensive tablets being produced and accepted on mass. I would say this will happen in the future but we are not at that point yet.
Christopher Dawson the author does have some experience in these fields being the Vice President of Marketing for WizIQ inc and learning network provider. However his predictions are nothing more than an opinion and not based on any reliable data. The same is true for Adam Garry, though as a manager of Dell’s global professional learning he would be apprised of the growing trends in ED tech.
ZD net is a news based online publication that is owned by CNET and focused on reporting on IT. This publication is geared towards the general public with reviews of tablets and other technologies. This publication does provide information and updates on what is happening within the IT world. However, the substance that would be valuable to educator is not necessarily present. Their writers are more inclined on grabbing reader’s attention and keep its list of subscriber’s growing. Based on his failed predictions it would not be a publication I would go out and promote to colleagues. However, it is a good reference point to find out about the newest and latest in the ED tech world.
Posted in: Week 02: The Edtech Marketplace
avninder 9:55 am on September 12, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I think making predictions always involves making assumptions. And as David mentioned in a recent post a lot of us are drawn to fancier devices even though their use may not be as practical as a technology that rates low on the interest scale.
I find it difficult to say which trend prediction has materialized as different areas in the field of educational technology may be attracted to different devices. For example: interactive clickers are becoming more commonly used in higher education and corporate training but not so much in the K-12 system. This could be because the class size doesn’t warrant its use and/or because the budget simply isnt there.
tomwhyte1 12:44 pm on September 12, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I also noticed your comment regarding the failed outcomes of the predictions, which reminds me of old movies predicting what the future will be like. For example, Back To The Future 2 – occurs on October 21, 2015. Yes, I realize we have 3 years to go, but I doubt that we will have that level of 3D occur for any new Jaws Movies before then…
As well, I really appreciated the explanation you provide. For these predictions are based on a somewhat domino effect, and any misstep will delay or derail the entire system.
Thanks for sharing.
Mike Rae 11:27 pm on September 12, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
Predicting anything is tough. I could predict that the sun is going to rise in the east tomorrow, and people would shoot me “duhh, thanks Captain Obvious” looks. On the contrary, the more bold the prediction, the less it is likely to happen, (after the prediction doesn’t come true, you are bound to get the “Well you really missed the boat on that one”). I guess the key is finding ones that you think are obvious, but others might not – and then of course be right about it.
@Tomwhyte: I agree with your point about the domino effect. Some of these trends need to happen before other ones (or at least together with them), so if one doesn’t come through as predicted neither will the other one.
tomwhyte1 8:45 am on September 13, 2012 Permalink | Log in to Reply
I agree with your statements, but would like add that I feel it is human nature when making predictions to go big, either positively (self-driving cars) or negatively (swine flu). My issue though, is people get tired of these predictions, relegate the information to background noise, then ignore the issue(s) entirely. Which I feel is one of the reasons why many educators drag their collective feet in regards to educational technology, for some in changes to fast, for others it never happens how they were told it was going to work.
Thereby, creating false information, and negative feelings.
Thoughts?